From data on the U.S. economy to see the world financial crisis challenge

From data on the U.S. economy to see the world financial crisis challenge

In recent years, including researchers, investors and journalists, including many people, from different angles to measure the U.S. economy is reasonable, the credibility of economic data, as well as the way the economy and economic data to measure the adjustment of the timing of the amendment and motivation, raises serious questions. Since the data for the U.S. economy the world economic situation analysis and investment decision-making with the fundamental role and benchmarking, the United States was unusually serious economic measure and a major adjustment of economic data and deliberately behind the amendment, with the strategic intent can not explain in words. A reasonable measure of economic challenge This is mainly geometric weighting method for alternative fallacy (substitution deception), satisfaction data to amend or even to hide, such as data-processing methods. Since 1999, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Bureau of Labor Statistics) geometry used in the weight of law, in essence, the use of a basket of goods can be flexible to change, and into the basket of goods used the weight variable. In this way, some prices rose varieties were excluded from the core measure of CPI (consumer price index) in addition to a basket of commodities, such as energy and food, etc.; but stay in the basket of commodities, price rises have been given the right lower weight, the price decline was given a higher weight, thus greatly reducing inflation reading data. It was jokingly said that the U.S. government's hope is that Remain in the index basket are from low-cost Asian imports and declining prices of manufactured goods, and to purchase only local services are increasingly expensive omissions. Many people understand the surge in oil prices triggered by the "oil shock", but soaring food prices caused by "food shock" fully equate. Two Merrill Lynch economist, and even made special "expansion of agricultural goods (agflation)" the term refers specifically to possible long-term sustainability of the global agricultural prices. In 2007, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization noted that in 2006 food prices in developing countries by 11%. Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO)'s Bill Gross believes that the 1970s oil crisis similar to 2005 to-2008 period food and energy is forecast to be the best overall indicator of CPI index. Was given the low weight, including medical expenses. Not long ago, the United States, employers often pay almost all of the employees family health insurance expenditures. Now in accordance with California's Kaiser Family Foundation data, the general average of the employment needs of the additional deduction from the wages of 3281 U.S. dollars to pay for family health insurance costs, the United States the average annual family health insurance the insured amount is 12,000 U.S. dollars. Since 2001, wages increased by 19%, while health insurance expenditure increased 78 percent over the same period the Government of the inflation in medical costs increased by only reading 17%. Fallacies of alternative queries CPI40% focused on representing the weight of the housing prices. United States Bureau of Labor Statistics using the same rental housing (House owner's equivalent rent), that is, the owner may be to rent out their housing rent to calculate the CPI of the relevant data. In this way, since 2000 housing prices rose dramatically, homeowners in mortgage loans, housing insurance, property taxes corresponding significant increases in expenditures, but have limited impact on CPI. It is estimated that 2003-2006 years, the owner the same annual growth rate of rent only about 5%, while the S & P / Case-Shiller housing price index has reached 10-20%. Over the same period,Housing price index calculated according to the CPI than the official CPI figure higher than the 2.5 to 4 percentage points. Satisfaction correction method was used to measure the performance of growing rapidly declining prices of electronic products in the CPI and the GDP weights calculation. The basic starting point is, these products continue to decline in price is not an accurate measure of its quality to enhance the satisfaction brought, so the increase in satisfaction should be used to fix prices of these products on the CPI and the adverse effects of GDP. As the only consumer electronics CPI1% proportion of the amendment satisfaction has little effect on the CPI, but the well-being will be greatly exaggerated as amended computer sales, which would artificially enlarge GDP data.A Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Milunovich computer analysis, is responsible for the accounting of the GDP for each quarter of the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, in order to deceive the public, have long ceased publication GDP growth rate used to calculate the actual shipments of computer hardware. Published by the Government in 2000 to second quarter 2003 data on technology spending, up from 446 billion U.S. dollars to 557 billion U.S. dollars, but actual prices should only rise from 42 billion U.S. dollars to 88 billion U.S. dollars. Studies suggest that the Bundesbank of Germany, used to calculate the satisfaction of the amendment would lead to increase in GDP of at least 0.5 percentage points. Published by the U.S. government to stop the data also includes the measurement of broad money supply M3. Originally, people can more or less from the size of M3 is estimated that credit expansion in the financial sector caused by the level of excess liquidity. For example, in 2006 the average annual growth rate of M3 is 12%, while in August 2008 has reached 14%. M3 will continue to publish the Federal Reserve to control inflation at a low level is difficult. The United States questioned the credibility of economic data At present the challenge of economic data, mainly in the degree of economic prosperity on behalf of the GDP and inflation measured CPI. Gross believes that "The U.S. real GDP growth rate should be lower than the official figure of at least one percentage point and that should be true for at least a relatively high CPI of a percentage point." Because he had reported in a communication that CPI is a "high-level fraud," arising from uproar. He believes that the U.S. government reported CPI inflation rate and generally higher worldwide inflation rate is difficult to reconcile. California, a former journalist John Williams, the CPI used to adjust the standard of the previous calculation shows that 2005-2007 period the inflation index should be between 5% -7%, rather than the official 2% -4%. If this additional 2-3 percentage points of the inflation index adjustment of the official GDP data, then the United States to enter the point of economic recession, official figures from the 2007 sub-loan crisis point, moved up to fourth in 2006 quarter. Combination of the foregoing on the CPI measure of economic challenge, we believe that the inflation index of depression should be set up to question. However, while there is satisfaction with the amendment did not raise the GDP data and the actual inflation with the GDP index of the amendment, but if taking into account the changes in U.S. industrial structure, especially the U.S. financial sector, the "Wild West" of the unknown enormous size, may make it difficult for us to make the United States were to raise the overall conclusions of GDP. In 1950, the U.S. manufacturing and financial services sector the proportion of GDP accounted for respectively 29.3% and 10.9%. The two figures in 2005 were reversed to 12% and 20.4%. At the same time, in the United States is also the internal structure of the financial services industry has undergone tremendous changes. Different from the entire U.S. financial services industry management, the proportion of asset size, the Bank of America in 1956 and deposit-taking institutions and insurance companies, asset management accounted for 57.2% and 21.1%; in 2006 the respective proportions of these two fell to 23.8% and 6.3% . During the same period, pension and mutual funds increased from 12.2% and 2.7% to 19.3% and 18.3%. However, This is far from the financial services industry throughout the United States reveals the internal vibrant as the picture of inter-generational change. As in 1999, "Financial Services Modernization Act" through the commercial banks, insurance, securities and real estate mortgage business was the removal of barriers between, and hedge funds, private equity groups, leverage the factory, the mortgage pool, money market funds, wealth management companies and non-bank mortgage lenders, such as the so-called "shadow banking system", have sprung up. Shadow banking system to stage a face-lift, formed a U.S. financial services sector, "Wild West", has been replaced by mutual funds and pension industry has become a new center of wealth in American society. From the following aspects, we can Glimpse U.S. "shadow banking system" and the shocking scale of unknown strength. From the 2007 global estimate of the generalized mobility, the United States a "shadow banking system" created by financial derivatives accounted for 78% of liquidity, which is equivalent to 964 percent of world GDP; the creation of debt securities accounted for 11% of mobility, accounting for 138% of the world's GDP. With the financial derivatives and securities of the introduction and spread of the debt, Europe and Asia and the Middle East, exports of oil-exporting countries such as the unprecedented scale of capital inflows to the United States, the United States in 2007 to absorb nearly half of global capital flows.U.S. presidential election in 2008, the hedge fund more than two candidates to become the main contributor. For example, Obama's main donors are located in Chicago hedge fund Citadel Investment Group. Senator Edwards is the main contributor to the hedge fund Fortress Investment Group. Senator Dodd from the SAC Capital Partners has been the early half of campaign funds. This indicates that hedge funds have been executive of the United States and the world leader in wealth. In short, the "shadow banking system" has become almost not subject to regulation, the lowest rate of "Wild West" of American society caused by the massive transfer of wealth on an unprecedented scale, but the hedge funds and other "shadow banking system" of the United States contribution to GDP no way of knowing. Thus, while U.S. economic data can be open to question the credibility of findings, in accordance with the amendment and inflation satisfaction data to determine the U.S. GDP was difficult to judge the conclusions of elevation. Measure of the U.S. economy, adjusting the timing and motives questioned On the CPI and the GDP measure changes since the beginning of the 1990s by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the president of Economic Advisers Chairman of Persian gold to start promoting. CPI rather controversial for major changes, in the period 1997-1999 in order to deceive the public manner. At that time, people indulge in the pleasure bull and was the National Assembly to impeach Clinton's "Monica" incident attracted. CPI basket of goods a substitute for practice in the 1990-1992 period in the depth of the economic recession and was a lot of people receiving food stamps or to the charity dinner Department, or junk food or canned food for their livelihood. Greenspan, such as an excuse for the low price of these goods will not increase, the CPI measure of replacement to a basket of commodities. However, the 1958 and 1974 before and after the economic recession to be much more profound, the U.S. government did not measure changes in the CPI. Similarly, the use of satisfaction in the 1990s, this amendment also be questioned. Product quality by the public from the price of the 1950s began, such as air conditioning, aircraft, aircraft, automotive transmission, color cameras have brought about a leap in consumer satisfaction. Questioned were of the view that social security expenditure and the minimum wage standards and inflation index-linked. Down CPI, to reduce the U.S. social security retirement expenses, while minimizing the standard of living based on the adjustment of the minimum wage in order to reduce the government deficit and improve the level of corporate profits. Gross believes that CPI down and raise the GDP, U.S. dollar assets in favor of other countries and the attraction of investment institutions. This includes currency and dollar-linked countries, with dollar-denominated oil-producing countries, there are huge dollar reserves of central banks with large dollar sovereign wealth fund. In contrast, a former Nixon White House strategist Kevin Phillips in a deeper understanding. In his view, the way the U.S. economy and economic data to measure the adjustment, affecting the United States and the world of ordinary people invest in U.S. financial markets strategy psychological component of the organic system. He will invest in the psychological manipulation of the modern financial system of implicit learning as the bull market study (Bullnomics). Bull market studies also include other important components, the market described as omnipotent sacred worship of the orthodox economic and financial market theory, and beautify the United States and other religious institutions. He pointed out that Financial dictatorship in blatant manipulation of the social wealth, politicians have ignored social justice and global economic balance is seriously distorted the reality of American-style capitalism will cause irreparable defects and irreversible loss of credibility and the global delay into an unprecedented crisis. In this way, he put the U.S. government manipulation of economic data and the current world financial crisis linked to the underlying root causes. Perhaps, only from this point of view, can be understood for many years Alan Greenspan and the Persian King deliberately adjusted the way the economy and economic data to measure the behavior. Inspiration The above analysis has revealed a wealth of American society and international capital and an unprecedented build-up continuing the path, that is, ordinary people from the financial dictatorship, from manufacturing-based economy to a financial services entity-based virtual economy, from the European and Asian exporting countries and oil-producing countries to the United States, from the traditional financial services to the shadow banking system. At present the wealth of American society and the international capital, are increasingly concentrated in some of the strict supervision of the United States has no intention of the outside world can not understand the shadow banking system. Adjustments and amendments to the economic measure of economic data in order to cover up the actual economic situation the United States the practice of ordinary people to cover up and financial dictatorship, the real economy and virtual economy, capital-exporting countries and capital-importing countries, the traditional financial sector and between the shadow banking system increasing imbalance in the relationship between the distribution of wealth is no doubt conducive to the promotion and preservation of this process of concentration of wealth. This wealth in the world after the Cold War to the United States increasingly core assembly Financial Group has put forward the United States has entered a stage of virtual capitalism. This has led to the U.S. goal of national economic management, from the traditional production-based value of the real economy to create change towards a more virtual net wealth management. To ensure that the stock of wealth concentration and wealth to maximize the net, beyond the traditional GDP growth, inflation control and employment growth, to become the United States the primary objective of economic management. In this way, like a listed company focused on maximizing the market value of accounts and well-done, Way to measure the United States on the economy and economic statistics carefully adjusted the self-is understandable. However, the difficult process of concentration of wealth is the root cause of the financial crisis in the United States. Due to the low level of long-term interest rates and financial derivatives and debt securities of large-scale epidemic, the United States the main assets of the general public to the securities and real estate-based, but with the increasing focus of the U.S. economy shifted from the real economy, virtual economy, traditional industries and the employment increasing opportunities for outsourcing of manufacturing and service industries through the shift outside the United States, the general public is the lack of relatively high income of the manufacturing sector can not use credit to maintain the value of their assets, they have emerged, such as mortgage default situation, triggered a second loan crisis. In the financial war, the capital is the military. Greenspan wily in the early 1990s began to restructure the economy led the way and economic data to measure and promote the international capital and the last time the United States a small number of social wealth to the financial interests of the United States to concentrate, equivalent to the completion of the United States has long been quietly mobilizing the resources of war and strategic layout, the United States in the current financial crisis from a strategic position to be labor Yat position. Therefore, the financial crisis is not the so-called market-based mechanisms of the result of accidental failure of insanity. Moreover, including Europe and Japan, the overwhelming majority of countries led by the banking and financial systems, while the United States has completed the financial services industry from banks and insurance, and mutual funds and pension, to hedge funds and equity funds of the inter-generational change . This makes the United States vis-à-vis Europe, Japan, the formation of an overwhelming financial advantage of inter-generational. This is the second loan with the United States can and other financial derivatives to fool other countries, and thought-out plan to mobilize the strength of the basis of the financial crisis. This inter-generational advantages, on the one hand, Phillips predicted that the United States so weak in a short period of time will not come, On the other hand the United States to implement the financial strategy of the national credit fraud resulting in loss, will also be far-reaching influence. In general, relying on one super-strong national independence, the U.S. strategy of prudent financial planning and implementation of capacity, is certainly worthy of the deepening financial crisis spreading around the world on the alert. Finally, the net wealth from the United States, management objectives, the United States will try to avoid the Great Depression similar to the overall evaporation of social wealth, but to a certain extent to maintain the economic bubble, through the local economy and the continuous adjustment of the financial sector to achieve their ideals. Authors: Li can 2009-6-29